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VIDEO + PHOTOS: 2nd China Domain Name Development Conference

*The following is a courtesy republishing of an original blog post by TLD Registry Ltd.

Just a few weeks ago, on January 10th, TLD Registry was a proud sponsor and invited speaker at the 2nd annual China Domain Name Development Conference held at the Beijing New World Hotel.
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The event was co-organized by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT), the Internet Society of China (ISC) and the ICANN Beijing Engagement Center.
Attendance was reported to be over 300 (triple vs. last year), consisting of registry operators, registrars, domain investors, the media and representatives from MIIT, CAICT, ISC and ICANN.
There were plenty of content and networking opportunities to keep one busy the entire day. This is just a partial list of some of the topics that were covered:
  • Domain Name Industry Regulation.  Review of 2016 and outlook for 2017.
  • Internet development trends in China
  • Domain industry development trends in China
  • UASG: Where are we now.
  • Report on Chinese IDN Universal Acceptance
  • Roundtable: Domain names in the new era
  • TLD entry license and review
  • Evolution of DNS structure and security practices at China Telecom
  • Trends of new gTLDs in the China Market
  • Analysis of the Digital Assets ecosystem and its future
Our CEO, Mr. Arto Isokoski, presented on “Providing innovation to the Chinese domain name marketplace.” He offered comments on the China opportunity, the importance of the digital economy, and upcoming Chinese IDN email initiatives.
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Our VP, Mr. Pinky Brand, participated in an extensive roundtable discussion: “Domain Name Market: The Next Step” with representatives from CONAC, Rightside, GMO, 190.com, West.cn, Yuwei, Domain.cn, RITT, and Afilias.
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As at any domain name conference, one of the best benefits of attending is the opportunity to network! There was no shortage of opportunities to do so in Beijing, especially at dinner, where many of the “who’s who” of the China domain name industry were on hand to talk shop and visit with old and new friends.
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In addition to the photos posted above, we’ve also created a short 3 1/2 minute video and photo montage to give you a taste of our day at the conference. We look forward to participating again!  Enjoy.
*The above is a courtesy republishing of an original blog post by TLD Registry Ltd.


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Zone file size of the average new open gTLD in 2016.

Many new gTLD applicants and others have their fingers crossed that ICANN’s new gTLD program will lurch forward over the coming months, resulting in a controlled explosion of new gTLDs that will offer registrants new options to connect with Internet users and lead them to the content that they expect. I’m sure some applicants are dying to see some revenue start flowing in the door, not to mention related vendors.

Hopefully, for many of the applicants that need to turn a profit at some point, before plunking down $185K+++ just to be in the game, have carefully thought out what the market for new gTLDs might be in the future, what volume of competition and negative sentiment they might face, and what numbers they will need to be successful by a date certain.

So what kind of market share can we expect by the end of—say 2016—from the new gTLDs? What kind of monthly ‘net new create’ numbers are needed for a single new gTLD to achieve a particular number by the end of 2016, assuming they can get 36 months of selling time by launching by January 2014? No one really knows, but I’ll take an educated stab at it. 

Having the experience of being involved with the launch and ongoing management of .mobi—I’ll call it a ‘legacy’ new gTLD, or to be technically correct, a legacy sTLD (sponsored top-level domain), I’ve been thinking about how hard it really has been for a non .com TLD to get consistent volume through the channel on a global basis.

A lot was learned through the .mobi experience and I can tell you it is no small achievement to get your registrar channel onboard and with you the whole way—not just during sunrise and the heady land rush, early premium auctions and general registration phases, but for months and years down the road.  Imagine how hard that might be when you are competing against multiple new entrants in the game who are also vying for attention from the registrar channel and potential registrants. Let us not forget that existing incumbent TLDs will likely fight like hell to maintain their market share—and they already have the channel in their pocket for the most part. I believe this will be especially the case for top tier ccTLDs.

For all that was accomplished and spent in the early years of .mobi, and despite some criticism, it is today ranked in the top 30 off the roughly 268 existing TLDs worldwide with nearly 1.1 million active domains in the zone.  The .net, .org, .info and .biz TLDs have greater volume and it’s taken them years to get where they are today.  Repurposed ccTLDs such as .me and .co have carved their niches and enjoyed attention, but even with their well-executed marketing and registrar programs I’m sure they are well aware of the challenges of making a market entry splash and maintaining momentum.

If you take the 15 sponsored TLDs that have been added since 2001 (legacy ‘new TLDs’ if you will) and count their total number of registrations, they amount to less than 5% of the current total estimated number of 252 million names registered across 268 TLDs. The vast majority of that 5% is with .info, .biz and .mobi. I won’t dive in here as to their relevance or other issues for not grabbing a larger market share, just stating numerical facts.

Take away the withdrawn applications and contention sets and there is potential for an estimated 1,112 new gTLDs. Take away the IDNs, the dotBrands and ‘closed’ generics and you are left with about 256 potential ‘open generic’ new gTLDs in the marketplace, assuming contentions, objections and other delay and/or death mechanisms are resolved—but don’t count on that.

So here’s where I think we might be at the end of 2016. This is high-level. If you would like detail on my assumptions and forecast for any set of new gTLDs please contact me. Disclosure: I provide consulting services to new gTLD applicants and others.

I believe .com and legacy gTLD zone files will experience moderate but continually slowing annual growth, ending with 129.5M and 41.5M registrations respectively. ccTLDs will continue their fast annual growth, ending with 163.8M registrations.

But wait, what about the new gTLDs? Well, if applicants, the channel, and the industry as a whole do a bang-up job educating, marketing and selling their value props through existing and new channels—essentially hit the ball out of the park—we could see the global market share for new gTLDs in aggregate reach 18% by the end of 2016.  I mean they/we/you would have to *kill* it to get to that point.  That would be an achievement that means at least three times better performance in 3 years than what the legacy sponsored TLDs have achieved in the past 12 years. That would mean an additional 73.6M new registrations in the marketplace—bringing us to a total of 408.5M names in all TLDs at the end of 2016.

I believe the vast majority of the growth in global registration will come from open generics, as in 94% of that 18% market share.  I will admit there are some unknown factors that could change all this—especially as it relates to what brands could do with their TLD assets—but that’s a post for another day. So if you are an *average* new open gTLD, my estimate points to about 270K registrations in your zone at the end of 2016.  Of course some will do better than average. If you do at least 5 times better than the average you’d be the next .co or .mobi.  If you do at least THIRTY-SEVEN times better than the average you could be the next .org, .de or .co.uk.

No one in this business wants to be average, but to even get to my estimated average you’d have to sell 7,500 net new registrations every month for 36 months to get to 270K in my forecast model.  So do the math and get cracking with your marketing and sales plan if you want to be at least average or better with your channel and end user targets.


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I’m impressed by Fadi.

I could have ignored today’s ICANN New gTLD Applicant Update Webinar and just read summaries from the usual respected news and industry sources. However, with three hours slotted and likely questions regarding ICANN CEO Fadi Chehadé’s somewhat eyebrow-raising comments at the regional ICANN Registry-Registrar meeting in Amsterdam last week—led me wanting to hear it all myself.

I’m glad I tuned in. The initial odd item was that there was not the usual participant chat-room function. ICANN mentioned this specifically at the start of the webinar. Some folks seemed annoyed but actually I found it refreshing. I think it helped the presenters and audience focus on the content and Q&A without the usual noise—good or bad. Now of course there is controversy and criticism that needs to be heard; but if everyone had been in a real physical room they would not be interrupting the presenter and would not be able to speak at more than a whisper. They’d have to resort to Skype or some other external chat function which we all know goes on at every ICANN meeting. So maybe that’s one reason the webinar ended after 1:50 instead of 3 hours—after anyone who wanted to ask a question was seemingly given the chance to do so—and live on the phone so everyone could hear the question straight from the participant’s mouth.

The welcome surprise was Fadi’s participation and remarks. He discussed ‘Sector Maturity.’  He talked about a possible ‘registrant bill of rights’ and the need to manage ourselves as an industry…or we will be managed.  He talked about opportunities and responsibilities that we need to embrace.  He said we must be mature, responsible, and ‘take care of ourselves.’  He urged us to “rise above our unique or individual issues or lenses” and try to see the bigger picture. It was a bit of a rehash of what he said in Amsterdam but I think it was important that today’s webinar participants heard it straight from his mouth, with all the inflection and tone—and not from an online news report.

Fadi’s remarks demonstrated to me that he is trying to lead a multi-stakeholder organization to fully grasp the high-level purpose and direction to take while also tackling head-on the minutiae and massive undertaking of the new gTLD program—let alone the incredible change management challenges it is heaving upon the ICANN staff.

I won’t get into all the real challenges that we all know still need addressing, but what I did hear at a macro level from Fadi and the others made me shift from negative to neutral at this stage on the prospects of the first new gTLDs being delegated into the root before this year is done. Unfortunately I can’t shift to positive until I actually see ICANN adhering to deadlines. There are several coming down the pipe in the next 90 days so let’s see what happens.

Fadi also remarked that “we will not jeopardize the stability of the DNS,” and are doing everything they can to keep the new gTLD program on track. He said, “to be super clear,” that ICANN is doing the work that is expected of them and that dates for the new gTLD program discussed in Toronto are on track. “We will not change it, unless there are DNS stability reasons for doing so.” OK, so that’s an out that could be applied in a variety of theoretical situations, but his further statements that he intends to increase the volume of communication on new gTLD operational issues and plans to attend future webinars leads me to believe we have a capable and likeable leader at ICANN.

Leaders continually guide, assert and clarify common goals in the big overall picture while getting their hands dirty.  Fadi seems to be doing such things and to that I offer a toast: “May we see deadlines met and new gTLDs delegated this year with no stability issues at all to the DNS.”

 

New gTLDs – The Movie

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Here’s a video trailer I produced and edited for DomainDiction. It’s a tongue in cheek take on the new gTLD program. The ending graphic might make you think a bit more, assuming you heard about Fadi’s comments last week at the regional ICANN meeting in Amsterdam.